Ever notice how every time Bitcoin dips from its highs, the crypto community starts buzzing about the end of the bull cycle? It's like clockwork. Well, renowned economist and trader Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) just dropped a thought-provoking thread on X that tackles this head-on. Posted on August 18, 2025, his insights are particularly relevant for meme token enthusiasts, as BTC's movements often set the tone for the wild world of memes. Let's break it down in simple terms and see what it means for your portfolio.

Key Takeaways from Krüger's Thread

Krüger starts by pointing out the recurring panic during corrections. Bitcoin has already climbed 7x from its 2022 lows, and recent gains are fueled by traditional finance (TradFi) players using crypto as treasury assets. Think of companies like MicroStrategy stacking BTC – that's financial engineering at play.

He advises: if you're worried about the top, sell now rather than panic-selling at the bottom. The old four-year cycle tied to Bitcoin halvings? Krüger argues it's outdated. The 2021 peak was more about macro factors like the Fed's hawkish stance than any inherent cycle.

Comparing today to 2021, he notes two big differences:

• Back then, BTC went parabolic on wild leverage and uncollateralized loans.
• The cycle ended because the Fed turned ultra-hawkish in early 2022.

Krüger draws a parallel to August 2024, suggesting this month's dip might mirror that one. Here's the chart he shared, showing BTC's price alongside metrics like annualized rolling basis (a measure of futures premium over spot), CBOE skew (options market sentiment), and funding rates (perpetual futures costs).

Looking at this, you can see the recent drop in basis and skew, indicating less froth in the market.

Fed's Role and Future Outlook

A big part of Krüger's optimism stems from expected Fed shifts. He anticipates more dovish policies – meaning easier money through rate cuts – once Donald Trump announces a new nominee to replace Jerome Powell. This isn't fully priced in yet and could spark a rally.

In the short term, he's cautious ahead of Powell's Jackson Hole speech on August 22, 2025, leaning bearish if it's hawkish to keep September cut odds in check. Still, he believes a September cut is likely, with key data points like PCE inflation and non-farm payrolls ahead.

BTC is struggling to climb without leverage, sitting right on its trendline from April lows. Krüger shared this "infamous BTC trendline" chart:

Zooming out, BTC trades more like a stock now – low volatility, gradual climbs – thanks to ETFs smoothing things out.

Bull markets don't end on valuations alone; they need a trigger, like policy changes.

Implications for Meme Tokens

While Krüger focuses on Bitcoin, his macro view is gold for meme token traders. Memes like Dogecoin or newer ones on Solana often amplify BTC's moves. If the bull cycle continues with dovish Fed policies, expect meme mania to return. But corrections can wipe out leveraged positions fast, so de-risking during dips might save your stack.

Remember, meme tokens thrive on hype and community, but they're tethered to BTC's health. Krüger's thread reminds us to watch macro triggers over charts alone.

For the full thread, check it out here.

Stay tuned to Meme Insider for more breakdowns on how crypto giants like BTC influence the meme ecosystem. What are your thoughts on this cycle? Drop a comment below!