In the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency, old habits die hard. Many investors cling to the idea of predictable four-year cycles driven by Bitcoin halvings, expecting massive bull runs every time. But as Ryan Watkins, co-founder of Syncracy Capital, pointed out in a recent tweet, it's time to rethink that approach. Quoting a thread from Jeff Dorman, CIO at Arca, Watkins urges the community to shift from overfitting past patterns to analyzing the market from first principles—breaking things down to their fundamental truths.

Watkins' tweet, posted on September 17, 2025, reads: "Eventually people here will have to start thinking about the current setup from first principles and adjust, instead of overfitting to prior cycles as if it’s law. My guess is this happens once we break the nonsense 4-year cycle theory." This comes in response to Dorman's in-depth thread, which dissects why this so-called "bull market" feels tougher than previous ones.

Unpacking the "Hard" Bull Market

Dorman's thread kicks off by challenging the narrative. He notes that while some call 2025 a bull market, it's barely scraping by as a decent year for crypto overall. More than 75% of tokens in Arca's coverage are down year-to-date (YTD), with over 50% plummeting 40% or more. The winners? Mostly big names like Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Binance Coin (BNB), and XRP, which are up 20-40% YTD.

This chart from Dorman's thread illustrates the stark dispersion in token performance. It's like if the Dow Jones Industrial Average and a meme stock like GameStop ($GME) were soaring, while small-cap stocks tanked—hardly a broad-based rally.

Dorman highlights that some of this year's top performers include what he calls "nonsense coins and memecoins," though he specifically calls out Litecoin ($LTC) and Bitcoin Cash ($BCH) as examples that serious investors might overlook. This touches on a key point for meme token enthusiasts: in a market where fundamentals are starting to matter more, where do hype-driven assets fit in?

The Shift to Common Sense Investing

One of the thread's core messages is that crypto is maturing. Gone are the days of "everything rallies" where you could throw darts at altcoins and strike gold. Now, success requires common sense—focusing on projects that generate real revenue and return value to holders through mechanisms like token buybacks.

Dorman lists standout performers:

• Tokens with ETFs or dedicated access tools (BTC, ETH, SOL)
• Crypto-related stocks (e.g., Circle, Galaxy, Coinbase)
• Projects backed by U.S. government ties (XRP, Chainlink)
• Revenue-generating protocols that buy back tokens (e.g., Hyperliquid's $HYPE, Pump.fun's $PUMP, Syrup Finance's $SYRUP, Maple Finance's $MPL/SKY)

He even revisits his earlier concept of "BACHELORS" tokens—profitable projects like BNB, Aerodrome ($AERO), PancakeSwap ($CAKE), and others that distribute earnings back to holders. Updated for new entrants like $PUMP, he dubs them the "#BARHEAPs."

For meme tokens, this signals a potential evolution. While pure memes thrive on community hype and viral moments, the current environment rewards those that incorporate utility or revenue-sharing models. Think of memecoins on platforms like Pump.fun, which has seen explosive growth by enabling easy token launches while capturing fees.

Why First Principles Matter for Meme Tokens

Watkins' call to "think from first principles" is particularly relevant here. First principles mean stripping away assumptions—like the rigid four-year cycle—and rebuilding your strategy based on core facts. In crypto, that could involve asking: What drives value in a token? Is it scarcity, utility, community, or something else?

The four-year cycle theory stems from Bitcoin's halving events, which reduce mining rewards every four years, historically sparking price surges. But as the market diversifies, with Ethereum's shift to proof-of-stake and the rise of layer-2 solutions, these patterns may no longer hold. Overfitting—adjusting your model too closely to past data—can lead to poor decisions, like expecting an "alt season" that never arrives.

For meme token investors, this means adapting. Meme coins often boom in speculative frenzies, but in a sideways or selective market, building on fundamentals could help sustain value. Projects that blend meme culture with real-world applications, like decentralized social platforms or gamified DeFi, might outperform pure hype plays.

Reactions and Broader Implications

The tweet sparked quick responses. One user agreed that sticking to old cycles is "blind faith," while another noted varying asset floors compared to last cycle. Even a Solana-focused account chimed in, emphasizing resilient code and incentives over cycle dependence.

This discussion aligns with broader blockchain trends. As crypto integrates with traditional finance—through ETFs, stablecoins, and regulatory clarity—the market behaves more like equities, where dispersion (wide performance gaps) encourages better due diligence.

At Meme Insider, we see this as an opportunity for meme tokens to innovate. By focusing on community-driven value creation, memes can carve out a niche in this maturing ecosystem. Whether it's through revenue-sharing or novel utilities, the next wave of meme success stories might just come from those who ditch the cycle myths and build from the ground up.

For more on how meme tokens are evolving, check out our knowledge base on meme token strategies or dive into the latest blockchain news. What's your take—will the four-year cycle hold, or is it time for a reset?