Raoul Pal, the macro investor and founder of Real Vision, just dropped a fascinating thread on X that has the crypto community buzzing. He's comparing the adoption curve of crypto to that of the internet back in the day, and the numbers are eye-popping. Starting from when both hit around 5 million users—IP addresses for the internet in 1992 and wallets for crypto in 2016—crypto is growing at twice the speed.
Pal points out that this rapid pace isn't slowing down. In fact, he's projecting crypto users to skyrocket to 4 billion by 2030. That's massive when you think about it—nearly half the world's population diving into digital assets.
And the market implications? Pal sees the total crypto market cap ballooning from today's $4 trillion to a staggering $100 trillion by 2032 or 2034. This isn't just hype; it's based on historical patterns and growth trajectories.
What drives this? Pal breaks it down to two big secular trends: adoption and currency debasement. He explains that debasement—think governments printing money—accounts for about 90% of crypto's price action, while adoption fuels the outperformance.
To back it up, he shares a chart with an R-squared of 90%, showing how tightly crypto prices track global liquidity measures.
Pal also draws parallels to the 2017 bull run, suggesting we're in a similar phase where patience pays off.
His advice? Chill out, HODL (hold on for dear life), and maybe step outside for some fresh air. Worrying about short-term dips like a potential weak September misses the big picture.
For those in the meme coin space, this is golden. Meme tokens thrive on community hype and viral adoption, and with billions more users entering crypto, the playground for memes like Dogecoin or newer contenders gets exponentially larger. Faster adoption means more liquidity, more eyeballs, and potentially wilder pumps. If Pal's right, meme insiders could see their favorite projects explode as mainstream folks flock in, driven by easy-to-use wallets and the allure of quick gains amid economic uncertainty.
Pal addresses some skeptics in the replies, like concerns over multiple wallets per user mirroring multiple IP addresses, emphasizing not to overthink it—the trends hold up.
If you're building or investing in blockchain, this thread is a reminder: we're still early. Keep an eye on adoption metrics from sources like Crypto.com or World Bank data, as Pal cites, to stay ahead. The exponential age is here, and meme tokens are right at the fun end of it.