In the fast-paced world of crypto, where meme coins can skyrocket overnight or crash just as quickly, it's easy to get caught up in the hype. But a recent clip from the Layer One podcast, shared by host Steven Gates (@stvngts) on X, offers a refreshing dose of reality. Featuring Haseeb Qureshi, Managing Partner at Dragonfly Capital, the discussion draws parallels between poker and investing—reminding us that even the best decisions don't guarantee wins every time.
The tweet highlights Qureshi's key message: "you cannot win every hand." As a former professional poker player turned crypto investor, Qureshi explains how poker teaches you to embrace uncertainty. In poker, the game is "stochastic"—meaning it's full of randomness. You focus on the "best line," or optimal strategy, knowing that sometimes your opponent will have the better cards, even if you're playing perfectly.
Here's a snippet from the clip:
"As a poker player, you learn you cannot win every hand. It's literally impossible, right? Poker is too stochastic... The poker players always ask themselves, what's the best line in this hand?"
Qureshi applies this to investing, noting that traditional venture capitalists often struggle with this mindset. In crypto, you can't catch every winner. He points to projects like Plasma (an Ethereum scaling solution), BitTensor (a decentralized AI network), and Ondo (a DeFi protocol) as examples. These are solid investments, but they require different mindsets and strategies. No single approach will snag them all.
Applying Poker Wisdom to Meme Coins
Meme tokens, like Dogecoin or newer ones inspired by viral trends, embody this stochastic nature even more than traditional crypto projects. They're driven by community hype, social media buzz, and sometimes sheer luck—much like drawing cards in poker. You might analyze charts, follow influencers, and time your entry perfectly, but external factors like a celebrity tweet or market shift can turn a sure bet into a loss.
The lesson? Focus on process over outcomes. Develop a coherent strategy—perhaps diversifying across a few promising memes, setting stop-losses, or only investing what you can afford to lose. As Qureshi notes, even the world's best poker player only wins about 70% of hands against a novice. In investing, you'll miss some big pumps, and that's okay. The goal is to improve at the margins: refine your research, stay disciplined, and avoid chasing every trend.
Why This Matters for Blockchain Practitioners
For those building or investing in blockchain, Qureshi's insights underscore the importance of resilience. Crypto markets are volatile, and meme coins amplify that. By viewing losses as part of the game—not failures—you can maintain a long-term perspective. Remember, sometimes the "better startup" at seed stage doesn't win the race, but sticking to your evaluated decisions pays off over time.
If you're intrigued, check out the full episode of Layer One, a new podcast by The Block in partnership with AVAX. Hosted by Steven Gates and Young Sparks, it dives deep into crypto's builders and ideas. The clip is from Episode 1, featuring Qureshi—perfect for anyone looking to level up their investing game.
In a space where FOMO (fear of missing out) runs rampant, embracing the poker mindset could be your edge. After all, in meme investing, it's not about winning every hand—it's about playing the long game smartly.