In the fast-paced realm of Crypto Twitter, or CT as insiders call it, everyone's got an opinion on the next big trade. But how often do those hot takes hold up under scrutiny? Mattytay, cofounder of Colosseum and a former Solana contributor, recently dropped a gem of a tweet that's got the community chuckling and nodding in agreement.

He posted: "I love how confidently people on CT say 'oh that trade is -EV for sure' like they actually used a mathematical formula to arrive at that conclusion, when they just drew some lines on a chart with a crayon." You can check out the original tweet here.

For those new to the lingo, EV stands for expected value. It's a key concept in probability and trading that helps predict whether a decision will pay off in the long run. A positive EV trade means you're statistically likely to profit over multiple attempts, while a negative EV one suggests losses ahead. In crypto, especially with volatile meme tokens, understanding EV can separate smart plays from reckless gambles.

Mattytay's point hits home because so many traders rely on technical analysis – basically, charting patterns like support lines, resistance, and trends – but treat it like gospel without crunching the numbers. It's like using a kid's crayon drawing to predict the weather instead of checking the forecast.

This vibe is amplified in the replies. One user, JET Europa, chimed in with "Trust me bro. 🧑‍🔬" accompanied by a meme GIF of intense mathematical calculations floating around a guy's head, perfectly capturing the sarcasm.

Another reply from muse_jp.sol simply posted a "SAME" GIF from The Office, showing Michael Scott agreeing emphatically – a classic way to say "I feel you" in meme speak.

Other responses echoed the sentiment: "ev calculations powered by vibes and crayons," "I think you’re giving them too much credit," and "bold to assume they did even that." It's clear the community recognizes this as a widespread issue.

In the world of meme tokens, where projects like Dogecoin or newer Solana-based memes can moon or rug based on hype alone, this crayon-chart mentality is rampant. Traders often chase FOMO (fear of missing out) without assessing real risks or probabilities. But as blockchain practitioners, it's crucial to level up. Tools like probability models or even basic spreadsheets can help calculate true EV, factoring in win rates, reward-to-risk ratios, and market conditions.

Next time you see a CT influencer slamming a trade as -EV, ask yourself: Did they show their work, or is it just lines on a chart? Mattytay's tweet reminds us to blend intuition with actual math for better outcomes in the meme token game.