Hold onto your hats, Solana fans! It's looking a bit bumpy for SOL right now. After hitting highs above $250, Solana (SOL) is facing some serious headwinds, trading around $172 and struggling to break past the $200 mark. Crypto analysts are sounding the alarm, suggesting we could see SOL tumble even further, possibly down to $125. Ouch!

One market guru, best_analysts, pointed out that the $200 level is acting like a major roadblock for Solana, pushing the price back down every time it tries to climb. This "resistance," as they call it, is making traders nervous.

📉 SHORT: #SOLUSDT | $SOL | 12h

Solana's price could drop to $125 if it breaks a key support level, as predicted by Mad Whale analysis.

🔑 Unlock better swaps: https://t.co/NTeyMkg5cH
pic.twitter.com/ATe4ARxcuL

— Crypto | #1 Free Signals (@best_analysts) February 19, 2025

Yesterday, SOL tried to steady itself around $170, trying to recover from a 15% drop in just four days. But here's the thing: fewer trades are happening. This means traders are a bit hesitant to jump in and buy SOL right now, which isn't a great sign. Plus, with the buzz around new ETFs for Litecoin (LTC) and XRP, some investors might be looking at those shiny new options instead of sticking with SOL.

Source: X

Currently, Solana is stuck in what's called a "descending channel," basically meaning the price keeps making lower highs and lower lows – not what you want to see! Analysts are warning that if SOL can't hold its ground around $150-$155, we could be heading towards that $125-$130 zone, a price level that has been significant in the past.

What the Charts Are Saying: More Downside Ahead?

Looking at some technical indicators, things aren't screaming "buy the dip" just yet. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which helps gauge if something is oversold or overbought, is hovering around 30, close to oversold territory. The Money Flow Index (MFI), which tracks buying and selling pressure, is also weak. And the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), another indicator, has turned negative, confirming the bearish momentum. In simple terms? The charts are flashing red for Solana right now.

However, it's not all doom and gloom. Some traders are spotting a glimmer of hope in the 4-hour RSI. It's showing a "divergence," where the price is still going down, but the RSI is starting to tick upwards. This could mean the selling pressure is losing steam. If Solana can break above $173, we might see a bit of a bounce back, with potential targets around $195.81 and $216.90. Let's keep our fingers crossed!

Source: Tradingview

Solana has been making some serious tech upgrades, like the Firedancer validator client and the upcoming Token-22 update. These are meant to make the network faster and better, but so far, they haven't translated into price stability. And here’s a kicker: there's a massive $1.6 billion worth of SOL tokens set to be released in March. This could add even more selling pressure and push prices down further if the market stays weak.

On-Chain Activity Dries Up for Solana

It seems like the buzz around Solana is fading a bit. Trading volume on decentralized exchanges (DEXs) for SOL has hit a five-week low, dropping 28% to $2.61 billion. Overall, SOL has lost 14% in value this February. Historically, big movements of SOL onto exchanges often precede price drops, and recent data shows significant withdrawals, suggesting potential sell-offs are brewing.

Adding to the woes, network activity is down a whopping 55%, mainly because fewer people are actively using Solana addresses. And to top it off, a few recent meme coin scams on Solana ($LIBRA$, $TRUMP$, and $Millenia rug pulls) have shaken investor confidence and raised security concerns. Plus, remember those 11.2 million SOL tokens from the FTX bankruptcy? They're still looming over the market, ready to be released and potentially adding even more downward pressure on the price.

Buckle up, SOL holders! It could be a bumpy ride ahead.