In the ever-volatile world of finance, a recent post from The Kobeissi Letter has sparked intense discussions among investors. The account, known for its sharp analysis of global capital markets, highlighted a critical shift in the US economy that's got everyone from Wall Street pros to crypto traders buzzing.
The key takeaway? "You can't print your way out of this anymore." According to the post, the US M2 money supply— that's the total amount of money in circulation, including cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible savings—is growing at a 5.1% annualized rate. This comes as core CPI inflation, which measures price changes excluding volatile food and energy costs, climbs back above 3%. And all this is happening right as the Federal Reserve gears up for rate cuts.
What does this mean in plain English? Well, if inflation sticks around 3% for a decade, the US dollar could lose over 25% of its buying power. That's on top of the roughly 20% drop it's already suffered since 2020. In short, your money is buying less, and the traditional fixes like printing more cash aren't working as they used to.
This insight builds on a broader thread from The Kobeissi Letter, which paints a picture of a "broken" system. Despite the Fed poised to slash rates in mid-September 2025— with markets pricing in at least 50 basis points of cuts this year—long-term Treasury yields are spiking. The 30-year Treasury yield is hovering near 5%, levels not seen since the 2008 crisis. It's a bizarre scenario: rates rising even as cuts are anticipated.
Why? Blame it on runaway deficit spending. The US has pumped out over $200 billion in bonds in just five weeks, and investors are demanding higher yields to take on that debt amid perceived risks. This "term premium" on 10-year bonds is at its highest since 2014, signaling growing unease.
The thread draws parallels to the UK and Japan, where aggressive rate cuts backfired, leading to soaring yields and persistent inflation. In the UK, five rate cuts in a year pushed 30-year bond yields to 27-year highs above 5.70%. Japan’s yields have exploded 30-fold since 2019. And gold? It's surging in lockstep, hitting record highs as a hedge against this chaos.
Enter stagflation—a nasty combo of stagnant growth and rising prices. With US unemployment among young adults at 10% and a softening labor market, we're seeing early signs. The Kobeissi Letter warns: own assets or get left behind.
For blockchain practitioners and meme token enthusiasts, this is where things get interesting. Meme tokens, those fun, community-driven cryptos like Dogecoin or newer Solana-based gems, aren't just internet jokes anymore. In a world of dollar devaluation, they represent decentralized assets outside traditional finance's grip.
Think about it: Bitcoin and Ethereum have long been touted as "digital gold" for their scarcity and inflation-resistant designs. Meme tokens, riding on blockchain tech, offer similar appeal with added virality and accessibility. As fiat currencies weaken, investors flock to crypto for preservation of value. Recent surges in gold prices mirror crypto rallies during economic uncertainty—remember how Bitcoin hit all-time highs amid 2022's inflation peak?
If you're in the meme token space, this macro backdrop could supercharge adoption. Communities around tokens like PEPE or SHIB thrive on narratives, and nothing fuels a good story like economic turmoil pushing people toward alternatives. Plus, with lower rates potentially easing liquidity, more capital could flow into speculative assets like memes.
Of course, volatility is the name of the game in crypto. But as The Kobeissi Letter suggests, sitting on cash isn't safe either. Diversifying into blockchain assets could be a smart move to outpace inflation.
For the full context, check out the original post and the accompanying thread.
Stay ahead in the meme token world by keeping an eye on these economic signals—they might just dictate the next big pump.