In the fast-paced world of crypto, where fortunes can flip overnight, a recent X thread has sparked heated discussions about market sentiment. Posted by @ezcontra, the thread highlights a video from Taiki Maeda, founder of HFA Research, titled "The Beginning of the Bear Market (and why I'm short)." This isn't just another opinion—it's a stark warning that's ruffling feathers in the community, especially among those holding meme coins and altcoins.

なぜ反発が強いのか？　暗号分野でのセンチメントの見誤り

As @ezcontra points out in the original thread, Maeda's bearish take is one of the few genuine ones on the timeline (TL) that's not just a joke about prices going to zero. Yet, it's met with "maximum hate." Why? In crypto, especially with meme tokens, optimism runs high. People often dismiss bearish views as FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) because they clash with the hopium—the hope that prices will moon. But @ezcontra argues this reaction shows how most folks misjudge sentiment. When a solid bearish argument gets slammed, it might signal that the market's more fragile than it seems.

Replies in the thread echo this divide. One user calls out past bearish posts, while another notes Maeda's track record of pivots. It's a classic crypto debate: bulls vs. bears, with meme coin holders often caught in the crossfire since these tokens thrive on hype and can crash hard on bad news.

前田泰貴の弱気論を分解する

Maeda's YouTube video lays out a compelling case for why he thinks the crypto top is in, particularly for altcoins—including many meme tokens. He draws on recent events like the massive $19 billion liquidation on October 10th, 2025, which wiped out leverage and left native crypto holders (the main buyers of altcoins) reeling. In simple terms, a liquidation is when positions get force-closed due to price drops, often leading to more selling pressure.

He uses a market cycle chart to explain where we are: after a phase of wealth creation (think post-election pumps), we're now in "wealth destruction." Good news isn't pushing prices higher anymore, and events like Trump's tariff backpedaling have triggered chops and downsides. For altcoins, Maeda predicts an "omega wreck"—total devastation—because their holder base is already damaged, and there's no fresh capital rushing in.

ETHの問題点とアルトコインの終末論

Ethereum (ETH), often seen as the backbone for many meme tokens on its network or layer-2s, gets special attention. Maeda notes ETH has been flat for over four years, with disappointing new highs that get sold into immediately. If ETH struggles, altcoins built on it—like countless meme coins—could suffer even more.

For altcoins in general, he paints a grim picture: high fully diluted valuations (FDVs, basically the total value if all tokens were circulating), ongoing token unlocks (where insiders get to sell), and no real buyers left. Examples include Arbitrum (ARB), Sui, and Athena—projects with strong teams but predatory tokenomics designed for dumping. Meme coins, which often lack fundamentals and rely on community hype, fit right into this "vaporware" category. In a bear market, they could face "cretaceous-paleogene extinction events," as one meme chart in the thread humorously puts it.

前田の戦略：ショートとファーミングで生き残る

So, what’s Maeda doing about it? He's shorting a basket of altcoins—not aggressively, but as a hedge. Shorting means betting on prices going down, and he's doing it on perpetual DEXes (decentralized exchanges for futures) where he earns positive funding rates (essentially, longs pay him to stay short). This also lets him farm airdrops—free token drops from protocols—for potential upside.

He's parked over 50% of his portfolio in stablecoins for safety and is farming points on projects like Polymarket, Hyperliquid, and stablecoin protocols for 30-40% APY. His advice? Protect your capital first. In crypto slang, "take care of the downside, and the upside will take care of itself." For meme token holders, this might mean trimming positions or diversifying into less volatile assets.

2025年のミームコインにとっての意味

Meme coins like Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, or newer ones on Solana have boomed this cycle on pure speculation. But if Maeda's right, the party could end abruptly. With no institutional bids for most memes and wrecked retail holders, sentiment could shift fast. We've seen it before: 2022's bear market nuked many memes to near-zero.

That said, not all hope is lost. Bitcoin might hold up as a "macro asset," and savvy farmers could thrive. If you're in memes, watch for signs like failing Q4 pumps or increasing liquidations. And remember, crypto's cyclical—bears lead to bulls eventually.

This thread and video are a wake-up call. Whether you're a degen chasing 100x or a cautious investor, staying informed on sentiment is key. Check out the full thread and video for more details, and let's see how 2025 unfolds.